Fikirler -> Sistemler

[rennie]

Sn.Rennie, uzun vadeli yatırım için USD yerine Altın Hesabı daha uygun olur düşüncesindeyim. USD artık eski gücünde olmayacaktır onca basılan paraya göre. Ama yinede bir yatırım uzmanı ile görüşme yapın derim. Şahsi düşüncemi yazdım sadece..

uyariniz icin tesekkurler....uzun vade derken max 1 yil...ama sizin gibi trade eden birisi icin cook uzun bir sure olduguna katiliyorum...bende vaadelide oynarken ayni mantikta davraniyorum...gunluk 100-200 tl arasi kara pozisyon kapatiyorum...ayda toplam 2.000 tl hedefle oynuyorum..nisanda hedef tuttu mayista simdilik iyi gidiyor...eger amacima ulasirsam cok ciddi bir ek gelir olacak her ay 2.000 tl para

usd ye gecmemdeki neden krizin daha surecegini ve 1 yil sonra dovizin daha yukarida ve emlak in suandan daha asagida olacagini dusunmemdir. Suan turkiyedeki faiz oranlarina baktigimda yeni politikanin dusuk faiz yuksek kur gibi gorunuyor.umarim yanilmam yoksa hedefledigim evi alamam, param da deger kaybeder

[rennie]

yok Gungor, bende bankadaı TL dekı paramı dolara yatırdım realtıme, foreks veya borsa degıl , yanı kaldırac 1:1..

supersiniz sn teo,

neden boyle soyledigime gelince; sizinle ayni pozisyonda olmak kendime guvenimi arttiriyor...uzun vadeli teknik analizlerde cok basarili oldugunuzu dusunuyorum (vob u fln saymiyorum cunku orada para konusuyor kisa vadede)...onceki forumdan beri sizi takip ediyorum ve gonderdiginiz kitaplari okuyorum zaman buldukca...calistigim icin cok firsatim olmuyor...

attiginiz usd/tl garifinde gorulen en dusuk seviye kac oluyor??? 1,5377 mi? ve bu en dusuk seviye buyuk tabloda (dusus trendi icin) 5 mi 3 mu olarak isaretlediniz?
bu sorduklarimi grafikte okuyamiyorum,zoom yapsamda etiketleri okuyamadim.
eger 5 ise suan 1 in (2) sini yaptik geri cekilmeyle dogru mudur?

[bgungor68]

Eger USD yükselirse sizden bilicem Svg.Teo .. enaz 5 pips yukarı beklerim..

[Linda]

bu sorduklarimi grafikte okuyamiyorum,zoom yapsamda etiketleri okuyamadim.
eger 5 ise suan 1 in (2) sini yaptik geri cekilmeyle dogru mudur?

o grafikler EW dalga sayımı değil!..

[rennie]

o grafikler EW dalga sayımı değil!..

ne peki?

[teo]

Master Candle ıle ılgılı Nıckc B Method.

http://rapidshare.com/files/231024443/NickB_Method_Master_Candles.zip.html

[teo]

TRADING RULES
1. Plan your trades. Trade your plan
2. Keep records of your trading results.
3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
4. Don't take the market home.
5. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good
news.
6. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
7. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time
for studying the markets.
8. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions
of others.
9. Continually strive for patience, perseverance,
determination, and rational action.

10. Limit your losses - use stops ! ( mental imo )

11. Never Cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
12. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
13. Never get into the market because you are anxious
because of waiting.
14. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
15. Losses make the trader studious - not profits. Take
advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market
action.
16. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but
self - control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating.
You are the most important element in the equation for
success.
17. Always discipline yourself by following a pre - determined
set of rules.
18. Remember that a bear market will give back in one
month what a bull market has taken a three months to build.
19. Don't ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser.
Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from
your peak profit point.
20. You must have a program, you must know your program,

and you must follow your program.

21. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood
over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more
than likely will be profitable.
22. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk
more then 50% of them again in the market.
23. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and
your stress point.
24. The difference between winners and losers isn't so much
native ability as it is discipline excercised in avoiding
mistakes.
25. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
26. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with
the golden touch do not talk about their success.
27. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set
goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day
long.
28. Accept failure as a step towards victory.
29. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken
a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don't let ego and greed
inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
30. One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door
closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always

lies through the open door.

31. The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his
will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects
all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is
safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
32. It's much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
33. If a market doesn't do what you think it should do, get
out.
34. Beware of large positions that can control your emotions.
Don't be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by
allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.
35. Never add to a losing position.
36. Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
37. You must believe in yourself and your judgment if you
expect to make a living at this game.
38. In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to
anticipate what the next big movement is going to be - up or
down.
39. A loss never bothers me after i take it. I forget it
overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss - that is
what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
40. Never volunteer advice and never brag of winnings.
41. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than

selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss

42. Standing aside is a position.
43. It is better to be more interested in the market's reaction
to new information than in the piece of news itself.
44. If you don't know who you are , the markets are an

expensive place to find out.

45. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by
human behavior nobody has the foggiest notion of what will
happen in the future. Mark that word - Nobody! Thus the
successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly
will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
46. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of
taking your profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a trade
continues winning without you. Chances are it won't continue
long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times
when liquidating early reserved the gains that you would have
otherwise lost.
47. When the ship starts to sink, don't pray - jump.
48. Lose your opinion - not your money.
49. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that

works for you.

[teo]

ZZ Semaphor ıcın acıklamalar (3 2 1 ). Eliott Dalgalarını bılen bırısı ıcın mukemmel bır tool,Zıgzag algorıtması kullanıyor. (3 donus noktasıdır,ama bu hıgh ve low olusunca kendını ayarlar , bunun ıcın gereklı onlemler..)




Kısa sorulara cevaplar

When a semafor forms, look for a BREAKOUT BEFORE looking for a REVERSAL... IT IS THAT SIMPLE


If the "3" moves, you wait for that M15 candle to close. Do Not trade on a reversal candle.


hu?????????? You don't know what you are talking about. It is great, BUT only if you understand some basics of Elliot Wave.
So, put on a 1hr chart gbpjpy, a 30 min one, a 15 min one and a 5 min. one. Put the indicator on these chart.
You see that on 1hr a top is set, the 3 is in place. So we can be sure that price will go down until the 3 appears.
In between on the other charts this wave can be seen developping! Look at 30 min, three waves are there and a 3 is in place, so the first downleg is there.
No a correction wave upwards can be expected. Put the laguerre asci 2 on the 15 min chart as entry.
On this 15 min. chart there are already movements of this correction wave, no wait until the 3 is placed, and use laguerre asci 2 on 5 min. chart.
When on the 30 min. the 3 of the correction wave is placed and is confirmed, the last downwave is starting of a first complete wave down on 1hr chart.
The a correctionwave on 1hr will start. Can be up to 100% of the first down, but prob. less.
The a third wave down will start. And that will not be the shortest one! So money to be made, with the help of this "rubbish" indicator.
I guess you realy had no clue, maybe now I hope






This indicator is gorgeous
Combined with others you don't need to worry about the possible repaint.
A fractal replacement
Just follow the ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC

[teo]

Simple and easy. The old ABC advance/decline.

If somebody is following the GBP during the last minutes should see a repaint in the previous bar where the last current 3 resides.

Last bar -1 had a 2 and now it disappeared. This is ok for zig zag style indicators.

But when we attach some indicators to help US it become easy to discover which number should stay and which not.

Last night previous 3 at current level does not repaint. Why? look at the indicators, MACD and Stoch divergence.

Also, at beginning of the chart where we see another 3 at +- 1.9340 we could see another divergence in both indicators.

The number 3 (previous to the last one) at 1.9725 shows a extreme stochastic.

Current 3 could represent a sell opportunity but the MACD angle is not in agreement.

The overall trend is up, so we´re looking for retracements for buy. Look at the same chart in H4 and scares to go short.

Number 3 does tell us too much. Combination of number 2 and 3 it's same but always following the ABC pattern.

Also, the MACD works to detect the ABS´s
Attached Images

[mozkan]

ZZ Semaphor ıcın acıklamalar (3 2 1 ). Eliott Dalgalarını bılen bırısı ıcın mukemmel bır tool,Zıgzag algorıtması kullanıyor. (3 donus noktasıdır,ama bu hıgh ve low olusunca kendını ayarlar , bunun ıcın gereklı onlemler..)
Just follow the ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC

imdi, bunun hesabı zigzaga dayanıyor, formülün içine standart sapma vs. de eklenmiş, son 1 saatimi ZZ Semaphor içeriğine ayırdım, işaretlediği noktaların yarısı doğru yarısı yanlıştır, neye göre yanlış derseniz hem EW hem de Ganna göre, ama real time trade için görsel bir kolaylık sağladığı da gerçektir, indicatoru yazan arkadaşın sanırım EW bilgisi sınırlıdır, follow ABC ye bağlamış olayı ama keşke her Swing 3 e bölünerek ilerlese, bunun itkisi var zigzagı var 17-19 dalgalık olanı var, var oğlu var. mesela bizdeki vob şu an günlük bazda dipten 16 parçaya bölünerek ilerliyor, neye göre gann swinge göre, diğer konu sarı 3 göründü işlem yapayım diyen kesinlikle duman olur fx de, çünkü sarı 3 dediğiniz yerin kalıcı olması yani repaint olmaması için gerek koşullar vardır, onlar ise maalesef indicator saçmalıklarında bulunmaz, oturup paşa paşa yeni barları beklemeniz gerekir. sarı 3 göründü bura dip demek yerine oluşacak tepkide yeni bir sarının veya düşüş esnasındaki en son sarının aşımını beklemek riskinizi azaltır, bu konuda zaten bir gönderi yaptım usd cad realtime trade olarak.

vob günlük grafik

[teo]

ne peki?

Sayın Rennıe,

Doların gunluk grafıgınde de donus var gıbı,1.5332 de guzel bır destegı var, gunluk olarak, en fazla buradan gerı doner...

Meraklanmayınız..

[teo]

3 dediğiniz yerin kalıcı olması yani repaint olmaması için gerek koşullar vardır, onlar ise maalesef indicator saçmalıklarında bulunmaz, oturup paşa paşa yeni barları beklemeniz gerekir. sarı 3 göründü bura dip demek yerine oluşacak tepkide yeni bir sarının veya düşüş esnasındaki en son sarının aşımını beklemek riskinizi azaltır,

bunun cozumu su sekılde olabılırmı, 3 gorundu, hemen ıslem yapma, donus barlarını bekle,Bu arada foat (bu da donuslerı yakaladıgını ıddıa edıyor) da kı volume sıfırlanınca bır sans ver gıbı...Aynı anda room down da sıfırlanınca...

Dıkkat edersenız alttak master candle olusmu var..( Bunu da yenı ogrendım, kullanayım barı hehehe )

USDJPY 30 dak grafık

[teo]

USDCHF de 3 olusmus ama henuz bır teyıd gelmemıs, Sadece Atr programı best long ıcın 1.1049 demıs, su an fıyat 1.1054,Burayada cok nadır gelıyor normalde best denılen yere...

[mozkan]

bunun cozumu su sekılde olabılırmı, 3 gorundu, hemen ıslem yapma, donus barlarını bekle,Bu arada foat (bu da donuslerı yakaladıgını ıddıa edıyor) da kı volume sıfırlanınca bır sans ver gıbı...Aynı anda room down da sıfırlanınca...

Dıkkat edersenız alttak master candle olusmu var..( Bunu da yenı ogrendım, kullanayım barı hehehe )

USDJPY 30 dak grafık

123 yada abc nin anlamı şudur, düşen trendde 1 dibine ver düşen trendin bitiğine inanıyorsan teyit 2 tepe aşımıdır, yoksa 3 göründü Al anlamına gelmez. dolayısıyla bu grafikte sarı 3 sonrası yükseliş gelecek kavun içi yada kırmızı olan cinsten yeni işaretlemelr yapılacak ve siz ancak o tepe aşılınca alacaksınız, dolayısıyla yapılan işaretlemeler reversal tespiti yerine trend dönüş teyidi olarak kullanılmalıdır, reversali kimse bilemez ama bu yöntemle teyit gelir. bu mantığı kullanmak için pahalı al daha pahalı sat veya ucuza sat daha ucuza al felsefesini kabul etmek gerekiyor. usd yen için mesela, cuma kapanış 98,45 galiba, şu an için satım yerim 97,945 ve 95,627 dir, 98,45 den satmam ama 97,945 ve 95,627 den satarım

[teo]

Here's a money management idea to make trading profitable - hopefully very profitable.

Just about any strat (strategy) is successful when combined with prudent money management and traded at the right time. i.e trade a trend following strat. when markets are trending, trade a retracement strat. when markets are range bound.

The hard part is identifying the current market conditions and switching strats at the right time which can be at any time (and usually when you least expect it ).

THE SOLUTION:
Trade 2 strats simultaneously and use money management to allocate more money to the one that is winning and reduce the risk to the one that is losing. One strat is trend following the other not.
Initially each strat is allocated a value for RiskPerTrade1 and RiskPerTrade2 = 0.25%.
If the last trade was a winner then increase RiskPerTrade by multiplying it by 1.5
If the last trade was a loser then decrease the RiskPerTrade by multiplying it by 0.5.
When market conditions favour one strat (i.e. it's winning trades) it is allocated more risk to maximise the profits. When market conditions are killing a strat it's position size is wound down to limit the losses. You'll also see that this scales down faster than it scales up i.e. fear is given more weight than greed to protect your money.

The beauty of this is that it automatically does what is possibly the hardest and most important thing to get right with live trading.

Of course you would set a minimum and maximum value for RiskPerTrade. Prudent values would be 0.025% and 2.5% when daytrading. A limit on the days and weeks losses is also prudent. The trend is not your friend if your account balance is trending down.